Real estate bubble? In Kenya,
the foundations stand strong
Protus Nyamweya, a property dealer with over
11 years’ experience in the US and Kenyan housing market, knows all to well
what a real estate bubble can do to an economy, having found himself in the
middle of the American housing crisis in 2009.
So dire was the situation across the pond
that Mr Nyamweya closed only one deal in 2010, and so he decided to pack up and
head home with the lessons.
That famous American housing bubble burst was
the result of a large number of home owners who struggled to pay off their
mortgages after the low introductory rates they had signed up for reverted to
regular interests, shocking the industry to the core.
Mr Nyamweya, who is now the executive
director of the local arm of Proam Group Ltd, the company he founded in
2004 in Atlanta, Georgia, offers insight into what the country’s booming real
estate market must do to avoid going down the same road.
As he does that, he is optimistic still,
believing that the local property market is yet to start showing the cracks he
witnessed in the US pre-2009.
“Although the real estate markets in Kenya
and America have similar basic concepts, they are as different from each other
as night is to day,” he says. “Kenya has experienced this boom since 2001 and
has a lot of advantages that can help it avoid going down the dangerous way
America trudged.”
Below, the Kenyan advantages, according to Mr
Nyamweya:
1 Housing Tax Policy
Kenya does not have a clear and
understandable tax gain. Real estate buyers in Kenya are taxed through their
teeth, and this makes them think twice before buying.
The real estate Housing Tax Policy in America
became the only safe avenue to escape capital gains under the tax relief of
1997 and Section 1034 Exchange. A couple could avoid paying up to $500,000
(Sh42.5 million) in capital gains for up to two years.
2 Mandated loans
These loans were easily accessible and
consequently led to explosion of sub-prime mortgages in the US. There was also
a lot of carelessness and laxity in lending standards.
Basically, loans were extended to Americans
who could not afford paying for them. Everyone who had a social security
number, (the equivalent of a Kenyan PIN), and an income, however small,
qualified for a mortgage.
More loans were given out to potential home
owners and housing prices began to rise. That easy availability of credit
fuelled a huge flow of foreign funds, continually facilitating debt-financed
consumer spending. Mortgage loans were being paid against the interest only — a
small part of the actual mortgage loan given, unlike in other countries,
including Kenya, where the principal and tax are part of the package in
repaying a mortgage.
“Clearly, this is a problem that Kenya does
not have and, I suspect, will not have in the near future. There are a lot of
rigidities in lending for mortgages and Kenyans are yet to embrace
debt-financed credit,” states Nywamweya, adding that in Kenya you need 10-30
per cent of the development finance to get a loan approved.
3 Lower interest rates
Kenya does not have Adjustable Rate Mortgage
loans (ARM) which feature balloon payments at the end of the term. Our typical
term is 10- to 15-year straight loans at current market rates and nothing
special. So do not be hoodwinked, it is still very hard to get a loan to buy
real estate in Kenya.
In the US, interest rates were historically
low. Because of easy access to money to buy property, Adjustable Rate Mortgage
loans with balloon payments became the norm. You could buy at a rate of three
per cent on a no-document loan and have the rate adjust as you make payments
for five to seven years with a balloon payment at the end.
The goal was to buy and refinance or sell the
property before expiry of the term, or refinance. Unfortunately, many of those
caught between refinancing and sale of property could do neither. They could
not sell because the supply by far outstripped the demand.
4 Home ownership craze
Americans’ love for homes is widely known and acknowledged. That fascination
with homes, coupled with the above factors, meant that buying homes was easier
than buying a car.
Acquiring a property in the US took 30 to 45
days if financing was credit-based, while cash buyers took less than a week. As
interest rates started rising, it became apparent that the homes were quickly
becoming “unaffordable”, hence those who had mortgaged them gave up on
payments.
In contrast, home ownership in Kenya is still
regarded as tough and difficult. Only a few people actually get through the
process. Land title and transfer bottlenecks are issues property buyers are
still grappling with in Kenya, and such processes at times take months on end
to be completed.
5 Beliefs on housing investments
Among Americans, home ownership is widely
accepted as preferable to renting, especially when the ownership term is
expected to be at least five years. This is partly because the fraction of a
fixed-rate mortgage used to pay down the principal builds equity for the home
owner over time, while the interest portion of the loan payments qualifies for
a tax break — whereas, except for the personal tax deduction often available to
renters, money spent on rent is deemed wasted.
In Kenya, the only exception is that the rate
and payments are higher, so there is need for careful understanding of what you
are buying and the long-term consequences. Though many believe home ownership
is a good investment here, few can afford it, so there are no beelines outside
banks for mortgages. The market is there, the boom too, but none is comparable
to the climate witnessed in the US five years ago.
6 The crash of the Dot-Com bubble,
The Stock Market crash — or Dot–Com bubble
burst — in 2000 resulted in many people withdrawing their money and investing
in real estate, which was believed to be a more reliable investment.
This opened up a haven for speculators who
moved from stocks to real estate. Kenya has speculators, but they buy and hold,
selling at higher price after improving the property. It is thus a ‘willing
buyer, willing seller’ market.
7 Return to higher rates
Between 2004 and 2006, the Federal Reserve
System raised interest rates 17 times, increasing them from one per cent to
5.25 per cent. The Federal Reserve System then paused raising interest rates
because of the concern that an accelerating downturn in the housing market
would undermine the overall economy, just as the crash of the Dot-Com bubble in
2000 had contributed to the subsequent recession.
Nyamweya says 90 per cent of Americans were,
and still are, borrowers living on credit cards and small incomes. So when the
bubble burst, a large number of home owners were unable to pay their mortgage
as the low introductory rate reverted to the regular interest rates that took
into consideration the principal and tax as part of the repayment.
This return to higher rates made homes
unaffordable and many homeowners were left holding negative equity, hence
foreclosures. This is not a factor that we can apply locally, thus we cannot
make a viable comparison. Here, buyers invest in properties well aware of the
incredibly high rates, therefore, mortgage payments do not change that much.
8 Risky products
Kenya requires full documentation before a loan is approved, with at least a 10
per cent deposit. We do not have zero-per-cent-deposit loans, neither do we
have interest-only loans. Thus, creating a bubble in Kenya is impossible.
The use of sub-prime mortgages, adjustable
rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages, and stated income loans — no documentation
loans — where the borrower did not have to provide documentation to
substantiate the income stated on the application to finance home purchases
described above, have raised concerns about the quality of these loans should
interest rates rise again or the borrower be unable to pay the mortgage.
Mr Nyamwea concludes that, if ever Kenya gets
to experience a ‘housing bubble’, it will not mirror America and other parts of
the world, because we have always been in recession, though in manageable
scales.
House prices might drop, because our economy
is smaller and less than 30 per cent of Kenyan buyers actually borrow, but the
majority of Kenyan buyers still save money to buy or, if borrowing, do so for a
very short period of time, with most paying off the loans in less than five
years.
“I will, however, say that the next six
months will determine if prices continue rising, plateau or drop, but still, I
do not expect to see prices get worse than 2007. So buy now and sell later...
or forever regret it,” he concludes.